Reported by Artanti Hendriyana and Nur Aini Rasyid
[Unpad Media Channel] Some experts from Universitas Padjadjaran provided perspectives on what happened in various fields in 2024. It was presented at the event “Satu Jam Bincang Ilmu (Sajabi)” titled “Outlook Politik, Hukum, dan Ekonomi 2024 (Outlook on Politics, Law, and Economy 2024)” that was held hybrid by the Unpad’s Professor Council from Bale Sawala, Unpad Rectorate Building, Jatinangor, Sumedang Regency, Tuesday (12/12/2023).
The 143rd Episode of Sajababi that was moderated by Prof. Dr. Zuzy Anna, S.Si., M.Si invited some speakers, there were Prof. Sinta Dewi, S.H., LL.M. (Faculty of Law), Prof. Popy Rufaidah, SE., MBA., PhD (Faculty of Economic and Business), Dr. Titik Anas, S.E., M.A., PhD (Faculty of Economic and Business), Prof. Dr. Arry Bainus, M.A. (Faculty of Social and Political Sciences), and Dra. Mudiyati Rahmatunnisa, M.A., PhD (Faculty of Social and Political Sciences).
Through his speech, the Head of the Board of Professors of Universitas Padjadjaran, Prof. Arief Anshori Yusuf, PhD, stated that this event was necessary to understand Indonesian’s condition from every dimension.
“Hopefully, through this discussion, we can at least provide solutions; if not, we will not be surprised by what happens in 2024,” said Prof. Arief.
2024 Indonesia Outlook in the Field of Law
On that occasion, Prof. Sinta presented about Indonesia’s Digital Transformation in 2024. Prof. Sinta was optimistic about the digital economic data that showed advancement, including e-commerce. Prof. Sinta also talked about the digital democracy challenge that might arise, mainly regarding freedom of speech in the digital domain.
Moreover, there were also challenges in personal data leakage and Artificial Intelligence (AI). According to Prof. Sinta, more than law was needed to face the challenges.
The regulations had to be supported by many actors from every approach, such as business actors, technology architects, and citizen attitudes.
2024 Geopolitics Outlook
The next speaker, Professor Arry, delivered material about the geopolitical outlook, which stated seven trends in 2024: conflicts and competition among actors, food security and vulnerability, energy security and energy crisis, human security, environmental and climate security, cybersecurity and cyber-attacks, and Artificial Intelligence.
Prof. Arry explained that conflict and competition among actors shaping world politics. Remarkably, the war between Israel-Palestine and Ukraine-Russia could affect every sector, such as issues of humanity, energy, and food. Aside from the war, there was also a conflict between the United States and China that would emerge in 2024 and a phenomenon of the end of dollar dominance (de-dollarization).
“What the world fears the most is the emergence of a food crisis and the lack of adequate food security policies in each country. This is what is worrisome in 2024, which I predict will continue to surface,” said Prof. Arry.
Politics and Election in Indonesia Outlook
Another speaker, Dr. Mudiyati, explained Indonesia’s political outlook in 2024, especially the upcoming election administration. Dr. Mudiyati said this election had several vulnerabilities related to legal compliance and security/conflict.
Furthermore, the 2024 Election also had threats of identity politics and polarization. According to her, society had to be aware of the high tension of 2024 politics, even though it was already mitigated through regulation.
“Actually, the worst case in democracy is the exploitation of ethnic, religious, or racial issues, and that is very wide open for us right now,” said Dr. Mudiyati.
2024 Economics Outlook
Regarding the economy in Indonesia, Dr. Titik delivered her perspective. Dr. Titik explained how the Indonesian economy recovered after the pandemic, where in the second quarter of 2021, it grew to 7,1%. After that, Indonesia still could maintain its positive growth at 3-5%. Even in the post-pandemic, the world economy recovered and increased in 2021 but went down because of war.
Due to the pandemic and war, interest rates rose, causing business costs to grow. Additionally, global inflation was also relatively high due to the war.
The high inflation and interest rates would be a challenge for Indonesia, where Indonesia needed an increase in global demand for exports. In addition, another challenge was the movement of capital to every country, which resulted in high return rates and affected Indonesia, and would be challenging to fund. The third challenge was a fluctuating commodity price.
“So, maybe we will keep moving (economic growth) in (number) 5%, but we will not reach 6% or 7%, which we need to be the highest income country in 2045. Therefore, we need a breakthrough in the next government to grow to 6-7%,” said Dr. Titik.
2024 Business Outlook
Related to the business world in 2024, it was delivered by Prof. Popy. On that opportunity, Prof. Popy conveyed her result analysis regarding company profit and publicly listed its shares in Indonesia. From 901 companies on IDX data, Prof. Popy succeeded in analyzing 860 companies and found 641 companies that gained positive profit.
According to the Strategic Situation Analysis that Indonesia would face, Prof. Popy emphasized the importance of mitigation steps when facing disasters.
“Then, there is how to respond to it, recover from it, and reconstruct it,” said Prof. Popy. (arm/SA)*
